The 2020 Terrorism Threat Assessment is designed to give our customers an understanding of the terrorist threat to New Jersey this year. As we continue into 2020, NJOHSP will build upon this assessment through briefings, written products, and webinars to provide analysis that is relevant, timely, accurate, and insightful.
In 2020, the neo-Nazi organization, The Base, will likely attempt to recruit new members in the region, rely on members with military expertise and training, and use intimidation tactics to terrorize its victims and spread its white supremacist ideology. The Base formed in 2018 as an organization that seeks to defend the European race while establishing a network of supporters willing to use violence to overthrow the current social and political order for a perceived impending race war.
On January 2, the US military killed Major General Qasem Soleimani, the leader of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Quds Force, in an airstrike in Baghdad. The IRGC is an Iranian government agency tasked with defending the regime against internal and external threats. In April, the US Department of State designated the IRGC a foreign terrorist organization, as the group espouses a radical ideology and uses terrorist tactics against its enemies abroad.
An NJOHSP review of white supremacist tactics indicates members are adopting strategies similar to those employed by foreign terrorist organizations, including strict membership guidelines, online propaganda, and inspiring lone offenders. Both the European neo-Nazi group, Feuerkrieg Division (FKD), and its similar American counterpart, Atomwaffen Division (AWD), have co-opted social networks and media arms to further spread their ideologies and gain followers.
On October 26, US Special Operations Forces killed ISIS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi in a raid in the northwest Syrian village of Barisha, located in the Idlib province. In 2014, Baghdadi declared the establishment of a worldwide caliphate in Iraq and Syria, leading many homegrown violent extremists to travel overseas to join the group and conduct attacks in the United States. Baghdadi appeared in only two propaganda videos since 2014, one announcing the caliphate and one in April.
On October 3, Mikael Harpon, a computer specialist in the Intelligence Directorate of the Paris Police, stabbed four colleagues to death, including three police officers and a civilian employee, before a trainee officer fatally shot him. This unsophisticated attack illustrates how an insider’s collective suspicious behavior could be viewed as a threat and reported to authorities.
On October 9, Stephan Balliet, a 27-year-old German citizen from the state of Saxony-Anhalt, attempted to carry out an attack on a synagogue on the Jewish holiday of Yom Kippur. A 35-minute video of the assault was streamed in real time on Twitch, a livestreaming video platform, and later shared to Telegram. According to German authorities, the attack appeared to be anti-Semitic in nature and fueled by a far-right extremist ideology. German authorities apprehended the attacker.
On the 18th anniversary of the attacks on September 11, 2001, al-Qa’ida released a speech by its leader, Ayman al-Zawahiri, with English subtitles called, “And They Shall Continue to Fight You.” While the 33-minute video instructed extremists to wage violent jihad against the United States because of its support for Israel, his assertions were similar to previous messages.
Hizballah operations will likely decline following US-imposed sanctions against Iran due to a lack of funding, spending cuts, and furloughed fighters. Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) founded Hizballah in 1985 to use as a proxy and political force in the region. The IRGC has contributed at least $700 million a year to the group, accounting for approximately 70 percent of its yearly revenue.
Lone white supremacist extremists will likely attempt to conduct attacks against targets they perceive as existential threats to the white race, despite white supremacist organizations encouraging non-violent means to further their ideologies. On August 3, Patrick Crusius, a suspected white supremacist extremist, shot and killed 22 people and injured 24 others at a Walmart in El Paso, according to authorities.
Since 2017, al-Qa’ida affiliates have merged with several regional extremist groups to fulfill al-Qa’ida leader Ayman al-Zawahiri’s call to unite militants, attack regional enemies, and offset counterterrorism operations. In March 2017, al-Qa’ida in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) merged with Ansar al-Din and al-Mourabitoun in Africa to form Jama’at Nasr al-Islam wal Muslimin. Additionally, Hurras al-Din became al-Qa’ida’s Syrian affiliate led by Abu Hammam al-Shami following several mergers in 2018.
The assassination of Walter Lübcke, a member of Germany’s Christian Democratic Union, at his home in Istha, Germany, on June 2 could instigate further violence against other politicians who similarly support pro-migrant policies. According to the German Interior Ministry, authorities arrested far-right extremist Stephan Ernst on June 15. Officials said Ernst admitted committing the attack to take “revenge” for Lübcke’s pro-refugee stance, marking the first political assassination the country has seen in more than half a century. Ernst later retracted his confession.
On July 6, counter-protest groups, including anarchist extremists, plan to mobilize against a “Demand Free Speech” rally the Proud Boys and several alt-right personalities are attending in Washington, DC. At this time, there are no overt calls for violence from either side; however, physical altercations have occurred at similar events in the past.
On June 4, the US Department of Justice announced Peyman Amiri Larijani, an Iranian citizen and former Turkish resident, was charged with conspiracy to transfer US aircraft parts to Iran. The indictment alleges Larijani conspired to use the supplies to equip an Iranian airline suspected of providing logistical support to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). The US Department of State designated the IRGC as a foreign terrorist organization on April 15.
Iran will likely continue using social media to target assets in the United States to gain access to information sources and promote disinformation campaigns. Iranian intelligence services use social engineering to target those within the US Government and key private-sector areas to collect intelligence and gain access to associated accounts and networks.
The threat from terrorists recently released from prison is moderate given the small number of releases in connection with terrorism-related offenses in the past five years and the level of public scrutiny and supervised monitoring. High-profile releases such as those of John Walker Lindh, Shannon Conley, and Colleen LaRose, also known as “Jihad Jane,” have prompted the US government to propose the Terrorist Release Announcements to Counter Extremist Recidivism Act, or the TRACER Act.
