The purpose of this intelligence report is to identify the most likely courses of action for domestic extremists or homegrown violent extremists within New Jersey over the next three years. Specifically, the report assesses the actions or activities an ideologically motivated individual or group will likely engage in and seeks to identify the most likely actions a particular threat actor will carry out based on trends and past behavior.
Anti-government and militia extremists will likely continue targeting law enforcement officers due to the perception that they are enforcing unconstitutional laws and regulations. Since the beginning of 2020, these extremists have targeted law enforcement officers at least five times, resulting in two deaths and two injuries.
Domestic extremists have continued to push divisive rhetoric, incite calls for violence, and attempt to mobilize supporters through protests or demonstrations following the Presidential election. Until election results are formally certified, uncertainties surrounding the electoral process will fuel conspiracies and motivate violent action from far-left and far-right extremist groups. Extremists will capitalize on election civil unrest to heighten their visibility and promote polarization among the American public.
Militia extremists arrested between October 7 and 15 for violent plots targeting government officials were primarily motivated by their opposition to government-mandated COVID-19 restrictions. The FBI charged six individuals with plotting to kidnap Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer. The state’s attorney general charged seven others with threatening public officials and supporting plans for terrorist acts, while an eighth individual faces only the latter charge.
Despite setbacks, white racially motivated extremists (WRMEs) will likely continue to operate internationally due to social media platform migration, exploitation of high-profile events, and online anonymity. Since 2017, WRMEs have conducted and plotted attacks while suffering mass arrests, infighting, group disbandments, and social media profile removals that should have hindered operational capabilities.
Boogaloo-affiliated anti-government extremists are likely leveraging the current civil unrest across the United States to expand their movement beyond the Internet, recruit new members, and conduct real-world action. Similar to the rise of the alt-right in 2017, the Boogaloo movement originated and primarily functioned online. Recently, members have started operating nationwide, resulting in several deaths, injuries, and arrests.
A collective of protesters, including self-identified anarchist extremists and those affiliated with Antifa, continue to demonstrate against the Seattle Police Department through the occupation of a six-block area of the Capitol Hill neighborhood known as the “Autonomous Zone.” In an effort to de-escalate tensions after days of violent clashes between police and protesters, Seattle Mayor Jenny Durkan ordered officers to leave the East Precinct and reduce their presence in the area to avoid further heated confrontations. Historically, the Pacific Northwest region has a range of domestic extremist groups that promote violence and destruction in order to further their ideologies.
Homegrown violent extremists (HVEs) continue to act in support of foreign terrorist organizations as government officials respond to the COVID-19 pandemic, nationwide protests attended by the public, and the 2020 elections. Since January, six HVEs have been identified, including two arrested for providing material support, one for plotting an attack, and three for targeting and injuring law enforcement and military personnel amid recent events.
In 2020, anarchist extremists will continue to attack government institutions; use violent counter-protest tactics against adversarial groups, including law enforcement; and target political figures representing disparate views. Due to the current COVID-19 stay-at-home orders in many states, anarchist extremists have lacked a significant opportunity to participate in direct action. The nationwide protests resulting from the death of George Floyd have given Antifa-affiliated anarchist extremists the opportunity to infiltrate protests in order to further their violent ideology.
Far-right extremists are likely leveraging anti-lockdown sentiments nationwide as an attempt to spread their anti-government extremist messages, intimidate law enforcement, and force governmental change. As states remain closed due to the COVID-19 pandemic, people are continuing to disregard orders to stay home and are holding anti-lockdown rallies, which provide extremists platforms to push their agendas.
Domestic extremists’ ability to spread disinformation has the potential to reach a broad audience, possibly radicalizing like-minded individuals, threatening public safety, and escalating calls for violence. In recent months, far-right extremists have knowingly spread false information and conspiracy theories related to the coronavirus to fuel anti-government sentiment and heighten public fear.
There were 44 domestic terrorist attacks, disrupted plots, threats of violence, and instances of weapons stockpiling by individuals with a radical political or social agenda who lack direction or influence from foreign terrorist organizations in 2019. NJOHSP defines domestic terrorism as violence committed by individuals or groups associated primarily with US-based movements, including anti-government, race-based, religious, and single-issue extremist ideologies.
Supporters of domestic and international extremist groups have encouraged followers to conduct attacks during the COVID-19 pandemic to incite panic, target minorities and immigrants, and celebrate the deaths of their enemies. In order to remain relevant, extremists routinely manipulate crises to validate their ideologies and incite potential attackers.
The 2020 Terrorism Threat Assessment is designed to give our customers an understanding of the terrorist threat to New Jersey this year. As we continue into 2020, NJOHSP will build upon this assessment through briefings, written products, and webinars to provide analysis that is relevant, timely, accurate, and insightful.
In 2020, the neo-Nazi organization, The Base, will likely attempt to recruit new members in the region, rely on members with military expertise and training, and use intimidation tactics to terrorize its victims and spread its white supremacist ideology. The Base formed in 2018 as an organization that seeks to defend the European race while establishing a network of supporters willing to use violence to overthrow the current social and political order for a perceived impending race war.
An NJOHSP review of white supremacist tactics indicates members are adopting strategies similar to those employed by foreign terrorist organizations, including strict membership guidelines, online propaganda, and inspiring lone offenders. Both the European neo-Nazi group, Feuerkrieg Division (FKD), and its similar American counterpart, Atomwaffen Division (AWD), have co-opted social networks and media arms to further spread their ideologies and gain followers.
Lone white supremacist extremists will likely attempt to conduct attacks against targets they perceive as existential threats to the white race, despite white supremacist organizations encouraging non-violent means to further their ideologies. On August 3, Patrick Crusius, a suspected white supremacist extremist, shot and killed 22 people and injured 24 others at a Walmart in El Paso, according to authorities.
