Recent losses in al-Qa’ida’s leadership will not hinder the overall operational tempo of the terrorist organization due to its formal structure and the increasing independence of its affiliates. Al-Qa’ida anticipates losing leaders and usually chooses successors far in advance. NJOHSP assesses these deaths will not impact the group’s long-term capabilities, owing to its decentralized leadership structure and ability to encourage followers to conduct external attacks in the West.

In the June edition of al-Qa’ida’s English-language online extremist magazine, One Ummah, the group devotes three sections to disparaging US society, economic policies, and treatment of the elderly during the COVID-19 pandemic. While al-Qa’ida seeks to recruit supporters by criticizing US culture and mentions how a New Jersey nursing home failed to protect the elderly, the group does not supply supporters with any lone offender tactics to conduct an attack.

Despite US counterterrorism operations targeting leadership of al-Qa’ida affiliates, experienced operatives can direct supporters to use a variety of terrorist techniques and tactics to attack the United States. In 2017, Mohammed Alshamrani, a Saudi national, enrolled in a US naval training program while serving as an al-Qa’ida in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) operative. He exploited his rank in the Royal Saudi Air Force, conducted surveillance of military targets, and concealed his intentions until he killed three US service members and wounded eight others at the Naval Air Station Pensacola in Florida in December.

On February 23, al-Qa’ida in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) released a 16-minute video announcing Khalid Batarfi, aka Abu Miqdad al-Kindi, as its new leader following the death of Qassim al-Rimi in a US airstrike at the end of January. Rimi was appointed leader of AQAP in 2015 after former emir Nasir al-Wahishi was killed. Rimi was designated a global terrorist by the US State Department in May 2010 and pledged allegiance to al-Qa’ida in June 2015.

On the 18th anniversary of the attacks on September 11, 2001, al-Qa’ida released a speech by its leader, Ayman al-Zawahiri, with English subtitles called, “And They Shall Continue to Fight You.” While the 33-minute video instructed extremists to wage violent jihad against the United States because of its support for Israel, his assertions were similar to previous messages.

Since 2017, al-Qa’ida affiliates have merged with several regional extremist groups to fulfill al-Qa’ida leader Ayman al-Zawahiri’s call to unite militants, attack regional enemies, and offset counterterrorism operations. In March 2017, al-Qa’ida in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) merged with Ansar al-Din and al-Mourabitoun in Africa to form Jama’at Nasr al-Islam wal Muslimin. Additionally, Hurras al-Din became al-Qa’ida’s Syrian affiliate led by Abu Hammam al-Shami following several mergers in 2018.

This assessment highlights potential al-Qa’ida threat scenarios by identifying plausible indicators and corresponding outcomes. Significant indicators were selected by compiling observable events and past outcomes to determine potential future scenarios.

Al-Qa’ida released a video on September 11 of a 30-minute speech with English subtitles called “How to Confront America” through its as-Sahab Media Foundation commemorating the 17th anniversary of the attacks on the United States on September 11, 2001. In the 14-point speech, al-Qa’ida’s leader, Ayman al-Zawahiri, called for Muslim brothers worldwide to wage jihad against the United States, specifically in the Islamic Maghreb and the Sahara, the Sahel, and West Africa.

NJOHSP assesses the recent uptick in propaganda from Hamza bin Ladin is an attempt to inspire sympathizers to execute attacks in the West, secure his position as a future al-Qa’ida leader, and attract supporters. Since Hamza’s public introduction in 2015, he has produced six audio messages—two were released in the past month.