ISIS will likely continue refining its UAV capabilities and touting successes as proofs of concept for future operations. Since February, ISIS claims it has conducted approximately 80 UAV attacks in Iraq and Syria, killing approximately 40 and injuring 100. The UAVs are primarily quadcopters, which can be easily purchased online and customized to drop small explosive munitions.
A dam failure like the one on February 12 at the Oroville Dam in Northern California does not present similar risks to New Jersey’s population because of differences in the State’s dam design, topography, and magnitude. According to media outlets, heavy damage to the Oroville Dam’s main spillway compromised its structural integrity, hindering its safe release of floodwater. Water flowing down the unpaved auxiliary spillway eroded the hillside and roughly 180,000 people in the inundation zone were subsequently evacuated.
Al-Qa’ida in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) is leveraging a recent US counterterrorism (CT) operation in Yemen to spread anti-American rhetoric and motivate supporters in the West. On January 29, US forces raided an AQAP-controlled area in Bayda Province, killing three tribal chiefs linked to the group and the daughter of deceased US-born radical cleric Anwar al-Aulaqi. In a rare audio statement, AQAP leader Qasim al-Rimi mocked the US President for the operation.
On February 26, US military forces killed al-Qa’ida deputy leader Abu Khayr al-Masri in northwestern Syria, further undermining the organization’s command structure in Syria. Masri, the global deputy to al-Qa’ida leader Ayman al-Zawahiri, was a member of the Khorasan Group—a network of senior al-Qa’ida extremists in Syria dedicated to planning operations against the United States and Europe and advising the Nusrah Front, al-Qa’ida’s affiliate in the country.
The ransomware infection of Cockrell Hill Police Department’s (CHPD) servers in Texas on December 12, 2016 revealed cyber vulnerabilities that can be mitigated. The hacker behind the attack demanded $4,000 in bitcoins to decrypt CHPD’s files. After consulting with the FBI Cyber Crime Unit, CHPD decided not to pay the ransom and wiped its server to remove the virus. The wipe caused the loss of some body camera, dash camera, and surveillance videos, as well as photos that were not properly backed up.
The proposed Dakota Access and Keystone XL Pipelines pose little impact to New Jersey due to the State’s robust, independent infrastructure and the lack of credible threats from anarchist or environmental extremist groups. The Dakota Access Pipeline will transport crude oil from the Bakken shale oil fields in northwest North Dakota to a terminal in Illinois, where it will travel to refineries on the Gulf of Mexico and the Midwest. The Keystone XL Pipeline is a proposed project awaiting US State Department approval, which will provide a more direct route to transport crude oil from Alberta to Nebraska.
Large-scale power outages are unlikely in New Jersey because of safeguards built into the electric grid, safety measures implemented following major weather events, and regular tests of grid resiliency. Last Thursday, an explosion at a high voltage substation near Brussels, Belgium damaged a physical connection between electrical grid components—causing a widespread power outage. Technicians restored power within three hours and reported a technical issue still under investigation caused the explosion.
NJOHSP continues to offer resources to religious facilities in New Jersey, especially following recent bomb scares against Jewish centers across the United States and Canada. Since January, approximately 60 Jewish Community Centers (JCCs) and day schools in 30 states have received roughly 100 bomb threats. The FBI is coordinating all investigative activity with state and local law enforcement partners.
Homegrown violent extremists (HVEs) are individuals inspired—as opposed to directed—by a foreign terrorist organization and radicalized in the countries in which they are born, raised, or reside.
HVEs pose the greatest threat to New Jersey and will likely remain so this year.
This map reflects 39 domestic terrorist attacks, disrupted plots, threats of violence, and weapons stockpiling by individuals with a radical political or social agenda who lack direction or influence from foreign terrorist organizations in 2016. All information was derived from publicly available sources.
Al-Qa’ida affiliates, specifically al-Qa’ida in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) and al-Qa’ida in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM), are calling for retaliatory attacks in response to the death of Egyptian cleric Omar Abdel Rahman—often referred to as “the Blind Sheikh.” On Saturday, Rahman died at a federal prison in North Carolina where he was serving a life sentence for his involvement in the 1993 World Trade Center bombing, which killed six and injured about 1,000.
The content of the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria’s (ISIS) latest edition of its online English-language magazine Rumiyah—released on February 4—suggests the group continues to use propaganda to compensate for a spate of territorial and leadership losses since early 2015. Rumiyah 6 centers around three themes—targeting Turkey, local and regional “successes,” and the importance of martyrdom operations to strengthen global followers’ morale.
On Saturday, September 17, 2016, the citizens of New Jersey witnessed a horrifying event as visitors to Seaside Park in Ocean County were rattled by an explosion minutes before a US Marine Corps 5K run. The series of bombings that followed in New York City and Elizabeth were a stark reminder of the very real threat we face from individuals who want to disrupt our way of life. No longer was terrorism over there; it had arrived here in our backyard.
The terror threat from ISIS to New Jersey is moderate because of the group’s ability to attract and dispatch foreign fighters to and from Iraq and Syria, as well as to inspire individuals to plot and conduct attacks. Since 2015, ISIS supporters have issued several threats targeting law enforcement in New Jersey.
