ISIS

Homegrown Violent Extremists (HVEs) in the US, 2015

Homegrown Violent Extremists (HVEs) are individuals inspired by foreign terrorist organizations and radicalized in the countries in which they are born, raised, or reside. In 2015, HVEs demonstrated an ability to operate in New Jersey and throughout the United States while connecting with like-minded individuals online and acting independently from organized terrorist groups. Since late 2014, a variety of radical groups such as the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) and al-Qa'ida in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) have encouraged HVEs to attack in their home countries.

ISIS Releases New Propaganda in Wake of Paris Attacks

Since the terrorist attacks in Paris last Friday, ISIS has released three videos and the 12th edition of its English language magazine, Dabiq, vowing follow-on operations in the United States. The FBI reports no intelligence to suggest the group is planning a Paris-type attack in the US, and ISIS has previously used propaganda campaigns to generate momentum and encourage supporters to conduct attacks in the West. 

ISIS: Defectors Expose Group's Deficiences

A new study of 58 recent Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) defectors—many of European and Middle Eastern descent—reveals clues and countermessaging themes that can likely deter individuals from joining the group in the first place. Four key narratives are identified as driving defectors to leave ISIS: group infighting; brutality against Sunni Muslims; corruption and “un-Islamic” behaviors; and poor quality of life. The former members also claim that ISIS has failed to live up to its central pledge to create a “perfect” Islamic society.

AQAP/ISIS: New Editions of English Magazines Released

Two days prior to the anniversary of September 11, al-Qa’ida in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) and the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) released new editions of their English-language periodicals, which focus primarily on broad issues and contain no threats to New Jersey. On Wednesday, AQAP released Inspire 14 following an audio message disseminated earlier in the day by Ayman al-Zawahiri, al-Qa’ida’s leader, while ISIS published the 11th issue of its Dabiq magazine. 

ISIS: Issuing New Threats

We have no specific intelligence to indicate near-term terrorist attacks in New Jersey following the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria’s (ISIS) statement on Tuesday that it has 71 “soldiers” in 15 states ready to launch operations. Although we cannot corroborate ISIS’s claims, the statement follows dozens of public threats the group has issued against US law enforcement and military personnel since the onset of the US-led counterterrorism campaign in Iraq and Syria in September.

Terrorist Groups Doxing US Residents

Extremist organizations are mining for and releasing personally identifiable information about some US citizens on the Internet—a tactic known as “doxing”—to incite violent action. Since March, a pro-Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) media group and an unidentified right-wing domestic group have been involved in three separate doxing incidents, primarily targeting US Government personnel.

Al-Qa'ida/ISIS: Not Attempting to Recruit in US Military

Al-Qa’ida and the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) are not systematically trying to recruit US military personnel because both groups can draw in coveted military and tactical skills from local populations and they probably fear US infiltration through overt outreach. Rather than targeted pleas to US military servicemen and women, al-Qa’ida and ISIS prefer broader appeals to adherents through established radical propaganda outlets.

ISIS: Displaying Some Structural Weaknesses

A series of military defeats, an inability to effectively administer territory it controls, and internal dissension in the last several months are undermining the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria’s (ISIS) strength. These setbacks come nearly a year after the group announced the establishment of its self-proclaimed “caliphate,” which spans large portions of Iraq and Syria.

ISIS: Social Media Not Primary Recruitment Driver

Recent Western studies and analysis suggest social media is not the primary driver of recruitment for the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS)—revealing that personal relationships are often more utilized in the recruitment of susceptible youth to join the group. Instead, the research shows that social media platforms such as Facebook, Twitter, and Pastebin play a key role in reinforcing existing radical views and amplifying ISIS’s extreme messages.

Syria Travel Bans Augment Local Threat

Western government efforts to prevent extremists from traveling to join the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) are having the unintended consequence of increasing the threat to local targets, specifically law enforcement. Since last fall, Western ISIS sympathizers have attacked law enforcement officers in their home countries after they were denied travel to Syria; other would-be travelers have stated to authorities that they would shoot officers at home if they could not reach Syria.

ISIS: Escalating Threats Against US Military Personnel

The Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) on Friday posted a message online calling for attacks against about 100 US military personnel across 23 states, according to preliminary translations and analysis of the message. Although no personnel from New Jersey were cited, residents of nearby states such as Connecticut, Maryland, New York, and Pennsylvania were identified. The website that posted the message was the same one that earlier this year explicitly mentioned New Jersey as an appealing ISIS target.

Europe: Uniquely Vulnerable to Islamic Terrorism

Europe is—and will remain—a highly attractive terrorist target because Islamic extremists can travel freely around the continent with EU documents, and they can leverage established Muslim diaspora communities for support. A NJOHSP review of terrorist attacks and propaganda since 2013 indicates al-Qa’ida and the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria view the European continent as a “softer” target compared to the more “hardened” United States.