Homegrown Violent Extremists (HVEs) are individuals inspired by foreign terrorist organizations and radicalized in the countries in which they are born, raised, or reside. In 2015, HVEs demonstrated an ability to operate in New Jersey and throughout the United States while connecting with like-minded individuals online and acting independently from organized terrorist groups. Since late 2014, a variety of radical groups such as the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) and al-Qa'ida in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) have encouraged HVEs to attack in their home countries.
Terrorist Attacks in the West, 2015
Al-Qa'ida: Possible Trajectories in 2016
After 14 years of pressure from an international anti-terrorism coalition and facing competition from the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria for supremacy of the global jihadist movement, al-Qa’ida’s trajectory through 2016 is uncertain. Using a scenarios based analysis, we evaluated three potential futures for the group in terms of their likelihood to occur. Scenarios analysis identifies multiple ways in which a situation may evolve, and is most useful when a situation is complex or when the outcome is too uncertain to trust a single prediction.
AQAP/ISIS: New Editions of English Magazines Released
Two days prior to the anniversary of September 11, al-Qa’ida in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) and the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) released new editions of their English-language periodicals, which focus primarily on broad issues and contain no threats to New Jersey. On Wednesday, AQAP released Inspire 14 following an audio message disseminated earlier in the day by Ayman al-Zawahiri, al-Qa’ida’s leader, while ISIS published the 11th issue of its Dabiq magazine.
AQIS: Eying Small-Scale, Local Attacks
Leadership losses and a failed plot against a US Navy tanker in Pakistan since last year have forced al-Qa’ida in the Indian Subcontinent (AQIS) to shift its attack strategy from large-scale to small-scale operations, such as assassinations. In October 2014, shortly after the group was formed, AQIS’s English language magazine Resurgence encouraged attacks on US oil companies, terminals, and pipelines, as well as on US Navy bases protecting Western oil interests.
Al-Qa'ida: Adam Gadahn's Death Largely Inconsequential
The death in January of al-Qa’ida media chief Adam Gadahn—the last known American member of the group’s senior leadership—will have little impact on al-Qa’ida because Gadahn did not direct operations; he largely failed to motivate Westerners to join the group; and he did not competitively adapt al-Qa’ida’s media strategy. To date, al-Qa’ida leader Ayman al-Zawahiri has not acknowledged or memorialized Gadahn’s death, suggesting Gadahn’s contributions to the organization may have diminished in the months and years leading up to his demise.
AQAP: Implications of Wahishi's Death
Al-Qa’ida in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) leader Nasir al-Wahishi’s death probably will not impact the group’s operations in Yemen or its capacity to strike the West, including the United States. Wahishi’s demise comes on the heels of the group’s loss of five high-profile leaders—mostly involved in media and radicalization—since January as a result of US airstrikes.
Al-Qa'ida/ISIS: Not Attempting to Recruit in US Military
Al-Qa’ida and the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) are not systematically trying to recruit US military personnel because both groups can draw in coveted military and tactical skills from local populations and they probably fear US infiltration through overt outreach. Rather than targeted pleas to US military servicemen and women, al-Qa’ida and ISIS prefer broader appeals to adherents through established radical propaganda outlets.
Al-Qa'ida: Influence Over Global Nodes Waning
Al-Qa’ida is struggling to maintain leadership over affiliates because of the growing appeal of the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS), the impact of military operations in the Middle East and North Africa, and the affiliates’ prioritization of regional rather than global aims. In the next year, we assess al-Qa’ida’s diminished oversight of its affiliate network will reduce the group’s ability to recruit, fundraise, and strike the West, including the United States.
Al-Qa'ida: Exploring Vulnerabilities in US Maritime Sector
Recent al-Qa’ida propaganda exposes the group’s view that the US maritime sector is an appealing target. Since last fall, al-Qa’ida in the Indian Subcontinent (AQIS) and al-Qa’ida in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) have highlighted in their English-language media limited port and cargo security throughout the United States—stressing to followers the negative economic consequences to the US of an attack on this sector.
Europe: Uniquely Vulnerable to Islamic Terrorism
Europe is—and will remain—a highly attractive terrorist target because Islamic extremists can travel freely around the continent with EU documents, and they can leverage established Muslim diaspora communities for support. A NJOHSP review of terrorist attacks and propaganda since 2013 indicates al-Qa’ida and the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria view the European continent as a “softer” target compared to the more “hardened” United States.
