US Military Aid: Unlikely to Impact Boko Haram

In September, the United States pledged $45 million to a Multinational Joint Task Force (MJTF) from Nigeria, Chad, Cameroon, Niger, and Benin to combat Nigeria-based terrorist group Boko Haram. Using a scenarios based analysis, we evaluated three potential ways in which Boko Haram will respond to increased US military assistance to the MJTF over the next year. Scenarios analysis identifies multiple ways in which a situation may evolve, and is most useful when a situation is complex or when the outcome is too uncertain to trust a single prediction.

ISIS: Issuing New Threats

We have no specific intelligence to indicate near-term terrorist attacks in New Jersey following the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria’s (ISIS) statement on Tuesday that it has 71 “soldiers” in 15 states ready to launch operations. Although we cannot corroborate ISIS’s claims, the statement follows dozens of public threats the group has issued against US law enforcement and military personnel since the onset of the US-led counterterrorism campaign in Iraq and Syria in September.

Al-Qa'ida/ISIS: Not Attempting to Recruit in US Military

Al-Qa’ida and the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) are not systematically trying to recruit US military personnel because both groups can draw in coveted military and tactical skills from local populations and they probably fear US infiltration through overt outreach. Rather than targeted pleas to US military servicemen and women, al-Qa’ida and ISIS prefer broader appeals to adherents through established radical propaganda outlets.