Al-Qa'ida: Possible Trajectories in 2016

After 14 years of pressure from an international anti-terrorism coalition and facing competition from the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria for supremacy of the global jihadist movement, al-Qa’ida’s trajectory through 2016 is uncertain. Using a scenarios based analysis, we evaluated three potential futures for the group in terms of their likelihood to occur. Scenarios analysis identifies multiple ways in which a situation may evolve, and is most useful when a situation is complex or when the outcome is too uncertain to trust a single prediction.


For more information, please contact NJOHSP's Analysis Bureau at analysis@njohsp.gov or 609-584-4000.